Y’all, it’s officially fall in Houston and the market has a totally different personality than it did back in the spring! I get asked almost daily right now whether this is a good time to buy or a good time to sell, and honestly…the answer is YES. Let me break down what’s actually happening out there so you’re not just going off what you heard from your cousin’s coworker.
Where We Actually Stand
Here’s the real deal, straight from HAR’s latest numbers (August 2026, the most current complete report as of this writing):
- Median single-family price: $330,000 — down 1.5% from a year ago. That’s a real, meaningful dip, not just noise.
- Average price: $433,016 — down about 1% year over year.
- Active inventory: 38,947 listings, which puts us at 5.3 months of supply. For context, anything in the 4-6 month range is considered a BALANCED market, so we are solidly there — no longer the frenzied seller’s market of a few years back.
- Mortgage rates have climbed back up, averaging 7.28% on a 30-year fixed as of the start of October. That’s up from 6.34% this time last year, and it’s the biggest wildcard in the whole equation right now.
HAR Chair Theresa Hill summed it up perfectly: balance is the defining characteristic of this market. Not a crash. Not a frenzy. Just… balance. [Source: HAR August 2026 Housing Market Update]
If You’re Buying
This is genuinely a GOOD time to be a buyer, and I don’t say that lightly. With 5.3 months of inventory, you have real options and real negotiating room, especially on anything over $450,000 where sellers are feeling the competition the most. You can ask for repairs. You can ask for closing cost credits. You can actually take your time and find the right house instead of waving earnest money around like it’s an auction.
The catch, and it’s a big one, is that mortgage rate. 7.28% is a lot higher than the 6.3% we were looking at a year ago, and it is absolutely affecting monthly payments. My advice? Don’t try to time the rate perfectly, because nobody can. Buy the house now and refinance later if rates come back down. A good lender can also walk you through buydown options that soften that payment for the first couple years. If you need a recommendation, just ask me — I’ve got a few I trust completely.
If You’re Selling
I’m not going to sugarcoat it — the days of listing on a Friday and having five offers by Monday are, for most of Houston, over. With more inventory than buyers have seen in years, you are competing for attention, and that means pricing right from DAY ONE matters more than ever. Overprice it hoping to “leave room to negotiate” and you’ll just watch it sit while the fresh, correctly-priced listing down the street steals your buyers.
Here’s what’s still true, though: well-priced, well-presented homes ARE still selling, and selling well. Professional photos, a clean and depersonalized house, and pricing based on real comps (not what your neighbor swears they got in 2022) will put you ahead of most of your competition before a buyer even walks through the door. Fall buyers tend to be more serious — nobody’s out here just “looking” in October — so the traffic you do get is higher quality, even if there’s less of it.
If you’ve been sitting on the fence about listing, let’s talk through your specific situation before you commit to a number.
Bottom Line
Houston isn’t crashing and it isn’t booming — it’s just… normal, for the first time in a long time. That’s actually a GREAT thing, whichever side of the transaction you’re on, because normal means you get to make a decision based on your life and your goals instead of market panic.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or just nosy about what your house is worth right now (no judgment, I do it too), reach out. I’d love to help you Level Up Your Life in this market, whatever that looks like for you.
Talk soon, Binky