Rates Dipped Again. Houston Deals Still Slowed. Here’s the Line Item Everyone’s Missing.

Watch the 90-second version:

Mortgage rates fell for a second consecutive week. Freddie Mac’s survey released August 20 put the 30-year fixed at 6.65%, down from 6.67% the week before.

That should be good news. And yet the National Association of REALTORS® reported on August 18 that pending home sales — signed contracts, the earliest real signal of where closings are headed — fell 2.3% nationally in July. In the South, they fell 3.0% compared to a year ago, the steepest annual drop of any region.

Two weeks of falling rates. Fewer deals. Why?

Because rates didn’t actually fall. They rose.

This is the sleight of hand in weekly rate headlines. Yes, 6.65% is lower than last week’s 6.67%. But one year ago, the 30-year fixed averaged 6.58%. Today’s rate is higher than it was last August, not lower.

NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun put it plainly: “The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings.” He added that homes are sitting longer and fewer buyers are bidding above asking than a year ago.

If you’ve been waiting for rates to rescue your budget, the last twelve months are your answer.

Houston’s side of the ledger

The Houston Association of REALTORS® reported that July closed with 40,750 active listings — the highest total HAR has ever recorded. That’s 5.5 months of single-family inventory. Days on market rose to 53, up from 50 a year earlier. Median price held roughly flat at $340,000, up 0.6%.

The Texas Real Estate Research Center’s August 20 report confirms the regional pattern, noting that “Houston and San Antonio continued to pose YoY gains in both inventory measures,” while adding that Houston is showing “further signs of stabilization as annual price declines continue to moderate.”

Translation: there is a lot to choose from, prices aren’t collapsing, and nothing is moving quickly.

The line item nobody’s underwriting

Here’s where buyers and sellers are both getting stuck. Buyers are waiting on the rate. Sellers are waiting on the price. Meanwhile the number that has moved most for Texas homeowners in recent years isn’t principal and interest at all — it’s the escrow side. Taxes and insurance.

And as of July 1, 2026, Texas made that easier to see before you’re committed.

TREC’s revised Seller’s Disclosure Notice (form 55-1) expanded Paragraph 9. Sellers are now asked to disclose insurance information covering the property, along with private roads the buyer may have to help maintain, aboveground storage tanks, and conservation easements. Texas REALTORS® attributes the expansion to a Sunset Commission directive on information affecting a property’s value or desirability. A separate new mandatory form covers groundwater and surface water rights.

What to actually do this week

If you’re buying: request the Seller’s Disclosure before you write, not after. Read Paragraph 9. Then get an insurance quote on that specific address before your option period ends — not a general estimate, a quote.

If you’re selling: pull your own disclosure and your own current premium first. With 40,750 competing listings, a buyer discovering a surprise in week three is a buyer you lose.

Rates will do what they do. The carrying cost is the part you can actually find out ahead of time.

Every figure above is sourced below. If you want these numbers run against a specific address, reach out.